Weekend Escalation: Will the Hormuz Drama Shoot Down the DAX Rally?
A brilliant final sprint on Friday brought the bulls a glorious end to the week: the German leading index impressively recaptured the psychological mark of 24,500 points. The markets had already aggressively priced in the faint hope of diplomatic easing, fueled by a targeted second crisis meeting between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan. But the hoped-for normalization at the strategically essential Strait of Hormuz failed miserably over the weekend. The geopolitical powder keg has exploded once again: by all appearances, an Iranian freighter was boarded by the U.S. military on Sunday. Tehran is already unequivocally announcing retaliation, and the peace talks are acutely on the brink. Financial markets are holding their breath in shock. While the price of oil immediately shot up steeply again and gold paradoxically declined, the DAX will in all likelihood have to brace itself for a brutal downward gap at today's Monday opening.
Defensive Trio Shines on Friday: Beiersdorf Fights for a Bottom
Before the news situation escalated, defensive individual stocks were particularly convincing on Friday. As the undisputed daily winner, Beiersdorf left the trading floor with an outstanding gain of 3.1%. Hot on its heels followed the shares of Merck KGaA with a strong price premium of 2.9%, while the consumer goods group Henkel completed the winner's podium with an increase of 2.7%. But despite the daily victory, technical analysis continues to urge absolute caution for Beiersdorf: the stock is still noticeably suffering from the massive sell-off in March and is currently laboring to form a sustainable bottom. To speak of a reliable, new upward trend at the current time would still be pure wishful thinking on the part of the buyers.
Wall Street Records vs. German Inflation Ghost on Monday Morning
For the new trading week, investors are now looking across the Atlantic for help. Wall Street most recently presented itself in an absolute record-breaking mood—an urgently needed tailwind that could save the DAX from a complete crash. But from a fundamental perspective, the next stress test threatens right on Monday morning at 8:00 AM CET, when the fresh German inflation data is published. Are the war-driven, exploded energy prices already hitting consumers mercilessly? Should the inflation rate rise drastically, the ECB's dreaded interest rate ghost will immediately circle ruthlessly over the Frankfurt trading floor once again. Extremely high nervousness is thus inevitably guaranteed for the DAX at the start of the week.
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