Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global Markets
● Central banks are facing renewed inflation risks as the conflict in the Middle East pushes up energy prices, forcing policymakers to reassess the balance between price stability and economic growth. Several institutions have maintained or increased borrowing costs, while others have signalled a cautious approach amid geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
● Central banks continued to accumulate gold in the third quarter, adding a net 321 metric tons to their reserves, according to the World Gold Council. Purchases so far this year are 6% higher than in 2025, with China and Poland among the largest disclosed buyers. By contrast, jewellery demand fell 17% to 313 tons, its weakest third-quarter level in the council’s records dating back to 2000.
United States
● U.S. voters backed candidates and local measures opposing or seeking to slow data-centre developments, potentially complicating the expansion of AI infrastructure. Texas, Georgia and Ohio, which together represent more than 40% of planned U.S. data-centre capacity, elected Democrats who campaigned on restricting or pausing new projects. Venture capitalist Brad Gerstner estimates that 25%–35% of next year's planned construction could be at risk.
● Democrats also won control of both chambers of Congress, a result analysts believe could constrain President Donald Trump's fiscal agenda.
● The U.S. services sector continued to expand in October, although growth eased slightly. The ISM services index slipped to 54.5 from 54.9 in September, while businesses continued to highlight tariffs and higher fuel costs as key supply-chain concerns.
● Manufacturing activity strengthened, with the ISM purchasing managers’ index rising to 55.5 in October from 54.5 in September, marking a tenth consecutive month of expansion. The prices index remained elevated at 75.2, although it eased from 77.9 in September.
● The labour market delivered mixed signals. U.S. employers announced 43,994 job cuts in October, up 2% from September, with food companies accounting for the largest share. Technology-sector layoffs fell to their lowest monthly level of the year. At the same time, employers announced plans to hire 444,692 workers, the highest October total since at least 2009.
● ADP reported that private-sector employment increased by 86,000 in October, exceeding expectations for 75,000 new jobs. Hiring was broad-based across businesses of different sizes, with bonuses, overtime and higher wages helping attract workers changing jobs.
● Job openings increased to 7.5 million in September from a revised 7.2 million in August, beating forecasts of 7.1 million. Voluntary departures also rose, with 3.4 million workers quitting their jobs and the quit rate reaching 2.1%.
● Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the week through October 31, below expectations of 197,000. Continuing claims moved in the opposite direction, rising by 23,000 to approximately 1.72 million in the week through October 24.
● Despite solid economic growth and employment figures, public perceptions remain subdued. A Wall Street Journal poll found that 62% of respondents considered the economy to be in poor or not very good condition, with the cost of living a major source of frustration. Wage gains have provided little relief, as the 5.5% increase since January 2025 has been almost entirely offset by a 5.4% rise in consumer prices.
● Investors are also watching developments in the Middle East, particularly whether the Trump administration will intensify military action against Iran or return to negotiations.
United Kingdom
● The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time since the start of the Iran war, according to the latest policy decision. The move reflects renewed concern about inflationary pressures, particularly those linked to higher energy prices.
Canada
● The Bank of Canada and the federal finance department agreed to extend the central bank’s inflation-targeting framework for another five years. The institution will continue to aim for inflation of 2% when setting monetary policy.
● The renewal comes as policymakers navigate a more difficult inflation outlook. The Bank of Canada recently raised its policy rate to 2.50%, expecting inflation to remain above 3% until late 2027. Governor Tiff Macklem said further increases remain possible but stressed that the bank will proceed cautiously given uncertainty surrounding trade relations with the U.S. and geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Mexico
● The Bank of Mexico unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, in a split 3–2 decision. Only six of 36 economists surveyed by Citi Research had anticipated a reduction.
● Policymakers described the move as a one-off adjustment and indicated that rates could remain unchanged for an extended period.
Brazil
● Brazil's central bank left its Selic benchmark rate unchanged at 13.75%, ending a sequence of five consecutive cuts. Policymakers cited higher inflation expectations, slowing economic activity and geopolitical risks linked to the Middle East conflict.
● President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s election victory has also fuelled market concerns that increased public spending could add to inflationary pressures.
Norway
● Norges Bank maintained its key interest rate at 4.5%, in line with market expectations. Governor Ida Wolden Bache warned that inflation remains too high and said the central bank is prepared to raise borrowing costs again if necessary.
Switzerland
● Swiss annual inflation accelerated to 1.5% in October, its highest level since December 2023, as imported energy costs increased. Prices of imported products rose 3.7% compared with the same month last year.
Sweden
● Sweden's central bank also raised interest rates in response to inflationary pressures linked to the war. Further details on the size of the increase and the policy outlook were not provided in the source material.
Australia
● The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85%, its highest level since 2008. The decision followed an upward revision to inflation forecasts, with consumer prices increasing by more than 4% in the year through September.
● Markets had increasingly anticipated another increase after Governor Michele Bullock warned that inflation remained too high, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening.
New Zealand
● Unemployment increased to 5.7% in the third quarter, its highest level since mid-2015. The unexpected deterioration comes ahead of a closely contested election.
● The labour-market figures follow a narrow 4–3 decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave its official cash rate unchanged at 2.75%. The split vote highlighted uncertainty over the policy outlook.
Thailand
● Thai inflation accelerated to 3.9% year on year in October, moving above the central bank’s 1%–3% target range. The government attributed much of the increase to higher fuel prices resulting from volatility in global energy markets.
● The Bank of Thailand had kept its policy rate at 1.00% in October, viewing the expected increase in inflation as temporary.
Malaysia
● Bank Negara Malaysia maintained its overnight policy rate at 2.75%, citing resilient economic activity and contained inflation. The central bank expects growth to exceed 5% in 2026, supported by exports, domestic demand and tourism.
● Economists remain divided over the next policy move, with some anticipating a rate increase in 2027 while others expect borrowing costs to remain unchanged.
South Korea
● South Korea's annual inflation eased to 2.8% in October from 2.9% in September but remained above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target. Policymakers are expected to assess whether another rate increase is needed to contain price pressures.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
YTD: -4.68%
Weekly: +0.37%
USD/JPY:
YTD: +0.77%
Weekly: +0.29%
GBP/USD:
YTD: -0.25%
Weekly: +0.30%
AUD/USD:
YTD: +3.23%
Weekly: -2.05%
USD/CAD:
YTD: +2.48%
Weekly: +0.61%
EUR/CHF:
YTD: -1.80%
Weekly: -0.44%
● The CHF/AUD is up more than 3.1%.
● The GBP/AUD is up more than 2.6%.
● The EUR/AUD is up more than 2.3%.
● The USD/BRL is up more than 2.2%.
● The CHF/NOK is up more than 1.9%.
● The USD/CAD is up more than 0.5%.
● The GBP/USD and the USD/JPY are up more than 0.2%.
● The AUD/CHF is down more than 2.9%.
● The AUD/HKD is down more than 2.3%.
● The AUD/SGD and AUD/USD are down more than 2%.
● The NZD/USD is down more than 1.2%.
Commodities
Gold:
YTD: -6.28%
Weekly: +0.64%
Brent:
YTD: +63.98%
Weekly: -10.58%
WTI:
YTD: +59.65%
Weekly: -10.81%
Copper:
YTD: +8.95%
Weekly: -5.83%
● Nickel prices are up more than 6.7%.
● Platinum prices are up more than 5%.
● Silver and Gold prices are up more than 4%.
● Palladium prices are up more than 3.8%.
● Natural Gas prices are up more than 3.4%.
● Brent prices are down more than 15%.
● WTI prices are down more than 11.8%.
● Dutch TTF Natural Gas prices are down more than 11%.
Indices
Dax40:
YTD: +7.45%
Weekly: +1.45%
S&P 500:
YTD: +6.91%
Weekly: -3.63%
NASDAQ:
YTD: +3.55%
Weekly: -4.99%
DOW JONES:
YTD: +7.10%
Weekly: -1.64%
FTSE 100:
YTD: +8.57%
Weekly: +0.57%
BOVESPA:
YTD: +3.14%
Weekly: -1.77%
● The VIX index is up more than 64.31%.
● The Nifty 50 index is up more than 7.4%.
● The CAC40 index is up more than 3.4%.
● The Kospi index is down more than 12.16%.
● The Japan 225 index is down more than 10.7%.
● The Nasdaq Composite index is down more than 7.2%.
Shares
Tops
● Applovin: +39.70%
● Fiserv: +29.41%
● Epam Systems: +23.01%
● Mosaic: +22.49%
● Bayer: +17.22%
● Idexx Laboratories: +16.45%
● Heidelberg Materials: +15.77%
● Booking: +12.16%
● Comcast: +12.03%
● Sanofi: +11.00%
Flops
● Lumentum: -44.57%
● Intel: -43.25%
● Sandisk: -39.37%
● Marvell Technology: -38.83%
● Astera Labs: -38.21%
● Datadog: -34.32%
● Seagate Technology: -33.40%
● Dell Technologies: -33.35%
● Western Digital: -32.32%
● Rheinmetall: -19.72%
● Siemens: -16.47%
● STMicroelectronics: -16.15%
● Infineon Technologies: -14.92%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 09 November
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - Inflation Rate YoY (October)
○ Previous: 0.9%
○ Forecast: 0.9%
● 07:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (September)
○ Previous: €19.5B
○ Forecast: €15.6B
● 11:30 PM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (November)
○ Previous: -4.7%
○ Forecast: -2.6%
Tuesday 10 November
● 12:30 AM - Australian - NAB Business Confidence (October)
○ Previous: -13
○ Forecast: -14
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Balance of Trade (October)
○ Previous: $133.53B
○ Forecast: $135.0B
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Exports YoY (October)
○ Previous: 36.3%
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Imports YoY (October)
○ Previous: 31%
● 01:30 PM - American - Core Inflation Rate YoY (October)
○ Previous: 2.6%
○ Forecast: 2.5%
● 01:30 PM - American - Inflation Rate YoY (October)
○ Previous: 3.7%
○ Forecast: 3.7%
Thursday 12 November
● 7:00 AM - UK - GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q3)
○ Previous: 1.4%
○ Forecast: 1.7%
● 7:00 AM - UK - GDP MoM (September)
○ Previous: 0.1%
○ Forecast: 0.2%
● 03:00 PM - American - Existing Home Sales (October)
○ Previous: 3.99M
○ Forecast: 3.95M
Friday 13 November
● 01:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (October)
○ Previous: 1.3%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 09 November
● Unicredit
● Hannover Rueck
● Barrick Gold
Tuesday 10 November
● Honda Motor
● Infineon Technologies
● Henkel AG & Co
● Phoenix
Wednesday 11 November
● ABN AMRO
● E.ON
● RWE
● Siemens
Thursday 12 November
● Aurora Cannabis
● Poste Italiane
● Telefonica
● Enel
● KBC Group
● Muenchener Rueckversicherungs
● Allianz
● CISCO
● 3i Group
● ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios
● Redes Energeticas Nacionais
Friday 13 November
● Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
● Mitsubishi UFJ Financial
● Assicurazioni Generali
● Compagnie Financiere Richemont
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of November 06, 2026
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