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News & Analysis
Weekly Outlook

Global Outlook: Oil Shock, Inflation & Rate Outlook

Carolane de Palmas
April 14, 2026

Weekly Outlook

 

What Happened This Week?

United States

●       Fed officials pushed back expectations for inflation returning to the 2% target, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance

●       A cease-fire with Iran may ease near-term inflation but is unlikely to reverse economic damage quickly

●       Policymakers signaled a prolonged pause remains likely as they assess second-round inflation effects

●       Jobless claims rose to 219,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.79 million, indicating mixed labor signals

●       The economy added 178,000 jobs in March, with unemployment at 4.3%

●       Durable goods orders fell 1.4% in February, driven by a 5.4% drop in transportation equipment, while core orders rose 0.8%

●       Services sector prices surged to a four-year high, with the sharpest monthly increase in 13 years

●       Labor market conditions appear to be stabilizing, with job openings holding steady

●       Economists continue to struggle forecasting payrolls, with large deviations from expectations

●       A cease-fire could slow inflation in the short term, but supply chain disruptions remain

●       Jamie Dimon warned the Iran conflict could push inflation higher and pressure markets, while highlighting risks in private credit

 

Eurozone

●       Inflation rose to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, driven by energy prices

●       ECB officials signaled multiple rate hikes may be needed if the energy shock persists

●       Inflation could average 3.5% this year under adverse scenarios

●       Retail sales fell 0.2% in February, reflecting weakening consumer demand

●       Rising costs and falling real incomes are expected to weigh on consumption in coming months

 

China

●       Producer prices rose 0.5% year-on-year in March, ending a prolonged deflationary period

●       Consumer inflation slowed slightly to 1.0%, indicating still-weak domestic demand

●       The energy shock is feeding into upstream prices, potentially squeezing margins

 

Japan

●       Economic and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated due to energy dependence

●       The country is exposed to supply disruptions and higher import costs from the Middle East crisis

 

India

●       The central bank held rates steady at 5.25% amid rising global uncertainty

●       Policymakers warned the Middle East conflict could weigh on growth and inflation outlook

 

Asia (ex-China)

●       Several central banks, including Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines, held rates steady

●       Policymakers remain cautious as energy prices and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook

 

South Korea

●       The central bank kept rates unchanged at 2.50% for a seventh consecutive meeting

●       Leadership transition at the central bank comes amid rising external risks

 

New Zealand

●       The central bank held rates at 2.25% but signaled readiness to tighten if inflation persists

●       Inflation is expected to rise in the near term, while growth may weaken

●       Economic conditions remain uneven, with high spare capacity limiting inflation pressures

 

Mexico

●       The central bank cut rates to 6.75%, while acknowledging rising inflation and growth risks

●       Inflation accelerated to 4.59% in March, driven by food prices

 

Global

●       The Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed oil prices above $100, briefly exceeding $120 per barrel

●       A cease-fire has eased immediate pressures, but structural risks to energy markets remain

●       Iran introduced a $1 per barrel transit toll payable in cryptocurrency, highlighting shifts in global trade mechanisms

●       The energy shock is driving global inflation higher and raising stagflation risks

●       Major economies are increasingly using economic tools as geopolitical leverage, signaling a more fragmented global system

 

This Week’s Market Movers

Forex

EUR/USD:

YTD: -0.47%

Weekly: +1.47%

 

USD/JPY:

YTD: +1.63%

Weekly: -0.24%

 

GBP/USD:

YTD: -0.29%

Weekly: +1.76%

 

AUD/USD:

YTD: +6.05%

Weekly: +2.68%

 

USD/CAD:

YTD: +0.86%

Weekly: -0.71%

 

EUR/CHF:

YTD: -0.72%

Weekly: +0.36%

●       The ZAR/JPY is up more than 3.10%.

●       The MXN/JPY is up more than 2.55%.

●       The AUD/USD is up more than 2.30%.

●       The NZD/USD is up more than 2.25%.

●       The AUD/JPY and the NZD/JPY are up more than 2.15%.

●       The USD/RUB is down more than 3.85%.

●       The USD/HUF is down more than 3.05%.

●       The USD/ZAR is down more than 2.75%.

●       The CAD/AUD and the CAD/NZD are down more than 1.55%.

 

Commodities

Gold:

YTD: +10.23%

Weekly: +0.03%

 

Brent:

YTD: +58.72%

Weekly: -4.07%

 

WTI:

YTD: +71.07%

Weekly: -0.73%

 

Copper:

YTD: -1.49%

Weekly: +2.77%

 

●       Platinum prices are up more than 4%.

●       Copper prices are up more than 3.75%.

●       Silver prices are up more than 3.40%.

●       Light Crude Oil and Brent prices are down more than 11%.

●       Heating Oil prices are down more than 8%.

●       London Gas Oil and US Sugar prices are down more than 7%.

 

Indices

Dax40:

YTD: -2.83%

Weekly: +3.80%

 

S&P 500:

YTD: -0.78%

Weekly: +4.79%

 

NASDAQ:

YTD: -2.81%

Weekly: +6.29%

 

DOW JONES:

YTD: +0.17%

Weekly: +3.69%

 

FTSE 100:

YTD: +6.77%

Weekly: +2.29%

 

BOVESPA:

YTD: +21.10%

Weekly: +3.83%

 

●       The KOSPI index is up more than 8.95%.

●       The Japan225 index is up more than 7.25%.

●       The Nasdaq Composite is up more than 6.25%.

●       The Ita40 index is up more than 5.15%.

●       The VIX index is down more than 27.20%.

 

Shares

Tops

●       Intel: +34%

●       Sandisk: +32.62%

●       SBA Communications: +27.43

●       Lumentum: +26.19%

●       Teradyne: +25.59%

●       Seagate Technology: +24.88%

●       Monolithic Power Systems: +24.47%

●       Lam Research: +23.90%

●       Micron Technology: +23.49%

●       Western Digital: +21.47%

●       KLA: +18.78%

●       Auren Energia: +17.90%

●       Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerai: + 16.01%

●       Hapvida Participacoes e Investimentos: +14.34%

●       Siemens Energy: +12.71%

●       STMicroelectronics: +12.49%

●       Berkeley: +12.01%

●       Lion Finance: +11.97%

●       Airtel Africa: +11.25%

 

Flops

●       Intuit: -16.07%

●       Texas Pacific Land: -15.84%

●       Axon: -15.35%

●       Atlassian: -15.30%

●       Workday: -12.79%

●       ServiceNow: -11.77%

●       CF Industries: -11.41%

●       Phillips 66: -10.83%

●       APA: -10.58%

●       Zscaler: -10.38%

 

Important Events to Follow 

Monday 13 April

●       02:00 PM - American - Existing Home Sales (March)

○       Previous: 4.09M

○       Forecast: 4.01M

 

Tuesday 14 April

●       12:30 AM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (April)

○       Previous: 1.2%

○       Forecast: -1.8%

●       01:00 AM - Australian - NAB Business Confidence (March)

○       Previous: -1

○       Forecast: -6

●       03:00 AM - Chinese - Balance of Trade (March)

○       Previous: $213.62B

○       Forecast: $ 112B

●       03:00 AM - Chinese - Exports YoY (March)

○       Previous: 21.8%

●       03:00 AM - Chinese - Imports YoY (March)

○       Previous: 19.8%

●       12:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (March)

○       Previous: 0.7%

○       Forecast: 1.3%

 

Thursday 16 April

●       02:00 AM - Chinese - GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)

○       Previous: 4.5%

○       Forecast: 5%

●       02:00 AM - Chinese - Industrial Production YoY (March)

○       Previous: 6.3%

○       Forecast: 5.9%

●       02:00 AM - Chinese - Retail Sales YoY (March)

○       Previous: 2.8%

○       Forecast: 2.4%

●       06:00 AM - UK - GDP MoM (February)

○       Previous: 0%

○       Forecast: 0.1%

 

Friday 17 April

●       11:30 PM - Japanese - Inflation Rate YoY (March)

○       Previous: 1.3%

○       Forecast: 1.5%

 

Major Earnings Reports to Watch 

Monday 13 April

●       GOLDMAN SACHS

 

Tuesday 14 April

●       Blackrock

●       JPMORGAN CHASE

●       Citigroup

●       Wells Fargo

●       JOHNSON&JOHNSON

●       Carmax

 

Wednesday 15 April

●       Bank of America

●       Morgan Stanley

●        ASML

 

Thursday 16 April

●       Abbott Lab

●       Bank of New York Mellon

●       TSM

●       NETFLIX

●       US Bancorp

●       Alcoa

●       Pepsico

 

Friday 17 April

●       Ericsson

 

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of April 10, 2026

 

The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.

 

All information has been prepared by ActivTrades (“AT”). The information does not contain a record of AT’s prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

 

Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Forecasts are not guarantees. Rates may change. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions may vary. Platforms’ tools do not guarantee success.

 

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