Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
United States
● Fed officials pushed back expectations for inflation returning to the 2% target, reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance
● A cease-fire with Iran may ease near-term inflation but is unlikely to reverse economic damage quickly
● Policymakers signaled a prolonged pause remains likely as they assess second-round inflation effects
● Jobless claims rose to 219,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.79 million, indicating mixed labor signals
● The economy added 178,000 jobs in March, with unemployment at 4.3%
● Durable goods orders fell 1.4% in February, driven by a 5.4% drop in transportation equipment, while core orders rose 0.8%
● Services sector prices surged to a four-year high, with the sharpest monthly increase in 13 years
● Labor market conditions appear to be stabilizing, with job openings holding steady
● Economists continue to struggle forecasting payrolls, with large deviations from expectations
● A cease-fire could slow inflation in the short term, but supply chain disruptions remain
● Jamie Dimon warned the Iran conflict could push inflation higher and pressure markets, while highlighting risks in private credit
Eurozone
● Inflation rose to 2.5% in March from 1.9%, driven by energy prices
● ECB officials signaled multiple rate hikes may be needed if the energy shock persists
● Inflation could average 3.5% this year under adverse scenarios
● Retail sales fell 0.2% in February, reflecting weakening consumer demand
● Rising costs and falling real incomes are expected to weigh on consumption in coming months
China
● Producer prices rose 0.5% year-on-year in March, ending a prolonged deflationary period
● Consumer inflation slowed slightly to 1.0%, indicating still-weak domestic demand
● The energy shock is feeding into upstream prices, potentially squeezing margins
Japan
● Economic and geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated due to energy dependence
● The country is exposed to supply disruptions and higher import costs from the Middle East crisis
India
● The central bank held rates steady at 5.25% amid rising global uncertainty
● Policymakers warned the Middle East conflict could weigh on growth and inflation outlook
Asia (ex-China)
● Several central banks, including Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines, held rates steady
● Policymakers remain cautious as energy prices and geopolitical risks cloud the outlook
South Korea
● The central bank kept rates unchanged at 2.50% for a seventh consecutive meeting
● Leadership transition at the central bank comes amid rising external risks
New Zealand
● The central bank held rates at 2.25% but signaled readiness to tighten if inflation persists
● Inflation is expected to rise in the near term, while growth may weaken
● Economic conditions remain uneven, with high spare capacity limiting inflation pressures
Mexico
● The central bank cut rates to 6.75%, while acknowledging rising inflation and growth risks
● Inflation accelerated to 4.59% in March, driven by food prices
Global
● The Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed oil prices above $100, briefly exceeding $120 per barrel
● A cease-fire has eased immediate pressures, but structural risks to energy markets remain
● Iran introduced a $1 per barrel transit toll payable in cryptocurrency, highlighting shifts in global trade mechanisms
● The energy shock is driving global inflation higher and raising stagflation risks
● Major economies are increasingly using economic tools as geopolitical leverage, signaling a more fragmented global system
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
YTD: -0.47%
Weekly: +1.47%
USD/JPY:
YTD: +1.63%
Weekly: -0.24%
GBP/USD:
YTD: -0.29%
Weekly: +1.76%
AUD/USD:
YTD: +6.05%
Weekly: +2.68%
USD/CAD:
YTD: +0.86%
Weekly: -0.71%
EUR/CHF:
YTD: -0.72%
Weekly: +0.36%
● The ZAR/JPY is up more than 3.10%.
● The MXN/JPY is up more than 2.55%.
● The AUD/USD is up more than 2.30%.
● The NZD/USD is up more than 2.25%.
● The AUD/JPY and the NZD/JPY are up more than 2.15%.
● The USD/RUB is down more than 3.85%.
● The USD/HUF is down more than 3.05%.
● The USD/ZAR is down more than 2.75%.
● The CAD/AUD and the CAD/NZD are down more than 1.55%.
Commodities
Gold:
YTD: +10.23%
Weekly: +0.03%
Brent:
YTD: +58.72%
Weekly: -4.07%
WTI:
YTD: +71.07%
Weekly: -0.73%
Copper:
YTD: -1.49%
Weekly: +2.77%
● Platinum prices are up more than 4%.
● Copper prices are up more than 3.75%.
● Silver prices are up more than 3.40%.
● Light Crude Oil and Brent prices are down more than 11%.
● Heating Oil prices are down more than 8%.
● London Gas Oil and US Sugar prices are down more than 7%.
Indices
Dax40:
YTD: -2.83%
Weekly: +3.80%
S&P 500:
YTD: -0.78%
Weekly: +4.79%
NASDAQ:
YTD: -2.81%
Weekly: +6.29%
DOW JONES:
YTD: +0.17%
Weekly: +3.69%
FTSE 100:
YTD: +6.77%
Weekly: +2.29%
BOVESPA:
YTD: +21.10%
Weekly: +3.83%
● The KOSPI index is up more than 8.95%.
● The Japan225 index is up more than 7.25%.
● The Nasdaq Composite is up more than 6.25%.
● The Ita40 index is up more than 5.15%.
● The VIX index is down more than 27.20%.
Shares
Tops
● Intel: +34%
● Sandisk: +32.62%
● SBA Communications: +27.43
● Lumentum: +26.19%
● Teradyne: +25.59%
● Seagate Technology: +24.88%
● Monolithic Power Systems: +24.47%
● Lam Research: +23.90%
● Micron Technology: +23.49%
● Western Digital: +21.47%
● KLA: +18.78%
● Auren Energia: +17.90%
● Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerai: + 16.01%
● Hapvida Participacoes e Investimentos: +14.34%
● Siemens Energy: +12.71%
● STMicroelectronics: +12.49%
● Berkeley: +12.01%
● Lion Finance: +11.97%
● Airtel Africa: +11.25%
Flops
● Intuit: -16.07%
● Texas Pacific Land: -15.84%
● Axon: -15.35%
● Atlassian: -15.30%
● Workday: -12.79%
● ServiceNow: -11.77%
● CF Industries: -11.41%
● Phillips 66: -10.83%
● APA: -10.58%
● Zscaler: -10.38%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 13 April
● 02:00 PM - American - Existing Home Sales (March)
○ Previous: 4.09M
○ Forecast: 4.01M
Tuesday 14 April
● 12:30 AM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (April)
○ Previous: 1.2%
○ Forecast: -1.8%
● 01:00 AM - Australian - NAB Business Confidence (March)
○ Previous: -1
○ Forecast: -6
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Balance of Trade (March)
○ Previous: $213.62B
○ Forecast: $ 112B
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Exports YoY (March)
○ Previous: 21.8%
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Imports YoY (March)
○ Previous: 19.8%
● 12:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (March)
○ Previous: 0.7%
○ Forecast: 1.3%
Thursday 16 April
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q1)
○ Previous: 4.5%
○ Forecast: 5%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - Industrial Production YoY (March)
○ Previous: 6.3%
○ Forecast: 5.9%
● 02:00 AM - Chinese - Retail Sales YoY (March)
○ Previous: 2.8%
○ Forecast: 2.4%
● 06:00 AM - UK - GDP MoM (February)
○ Previous: 0%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
Friday 17 April
● 11:30 PM - Japanese - Inflation Rate YoY (March)
○ Previous: 1.3%
○ Forecast: 1.5%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 13 April
● GOLDMAN SACHS
Tuesday 14 April
● Blackrock
● JPMORGAN CHASE
● Citigroup
● Wells Fargo
● JOHNSON&JOHNSON
● Carmax
Wednesday 15 April
● Bank of America
● Morgan Stanley
● ASML
Thursday 16 April
● Abbott Lab
● Bank of New York Mellon
● TSM
● NETFLIX
● US Bancorp
● Alcoa
● Pepsico
Friday 17 April
● Ericsson
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of April 10, 2026
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