Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Global
● The IMF cut its global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3%, warning a prolonged Middle East conflict could push growth down to 2%
● In an adverse scenario, growth is seen at 2.6% with oil at $100; in a severe scenario, growth drops to 2%
● The IMF downgraded growth projections for the Middle East, Europe, and China, while expecting the U.S. to be more resilient
United States
● Political pressure on the Federal Reserve intensified, with President Trump threatening to remove Chair Jerome Powell amid an ongoing legal debate over presidential authority
● Powell’s term ends soon, but he may remain in a temporary role if no successor is confirmed
● The Fed is expected to keep rates on hold, with policymakers highlighting rising uncertainty linked to the Iran conflict
● Inflation rose to 3.3% in March, the highest in two years, driven by energy prices
● Producer prices increased 4% year-on-year, with energy costs up 8.5%
● Consumer sentiment dropped to a record low of 47.6, reflecting concerns about inflation and geopolitical risks
● Industrial production fell 0.5% in March, with declines across manufacturing, utilities, and mining
● Jobless claims remained stable, pointing to limited layoffs despite a cooling labor market
● Businesses report elevated uncertainty, with cautious hiring and increased price sensitivity among consumers
Eurozone
● Inflation was revised higher to 2.6% in March, with expectations it could approach 3% due to energy prices
● The ECB signaled a need for flexible and data-dependent policy as risks rise
● Markets are pricing in at least two rate hikes this year
● The IMF cut eurozone growth forecasts to 1.1% as higher energy costs weigh on activity
● Policymakers warned that shielding consumers too much from energy costs could distort demand and strain public finances
United Kingdom
● The economy grew 0.5% in February, but momentum is at risk from rising energy prices
● The IMF lowered the U.K.’s growth forecast to 0.8%
● Consumer and business activity weakened, with energy costs and geopolitical risks weighing on confidence
China
● GDP grew 5.0% in Q1, beating expectations but showing signs of slowing momentum
● Export growth slowed sharply to 2.5% in March, while retail sales rose just 1.7%
● Urban unemployment increased to 5.4%, highlighting underlying economic fragility
● The IMF lowered China’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%
Asia (ex-China)
● Singapore tightened monetary policy for the first time in over three years to contain inflation pressures
● South Korea maintained rates at 2.5%, emphasizing price stability amid supply disruptions
● The Middle East conflict is disrupting supply chains and increasing energy costs across the region
Latin America
● Mexico faces inflation pressures linked to global energy prices and external risks
● Peru’s central bank governor Julio Velarde is set to step down after a long tenure marked by strong macroeconomic stability, raising uncertainty about future policy direction
Middle East
● The IMF cut regional growth forecasts to 1.9% due to the ongoing conflict and energy market disruptions
● The war continues to drive global uncertainty, affecting inflation, growth, and monetary policy expectations worldwide
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
YTD: +0.32%
Weekly: +0.96%
USD/JPY:
YTD: +1.81%
Weekly: -0.07%
GBP/USD:
YTD: +0.48%
Weekly: +0.99%
AUD/USD:
YTD: +7.62%
Weekly: +2.58%
USD/CAD:
YTD: -0.19%
Weekly: -1.28%
EUR/CHF:
YTD: -0.84%
Weekly: +0.10%
● The NOK/JPY is up more than 1.85%.
● The CHF/TRY is up more than 1.35%.
● The AUD/JPY is up more than 1.50%.
● The CAD/JPY is up more than 1.30%.
● The AUD/USD is up more than 1.15%.
● The USD/HUF is down more than 3.70%.
● The EUR/HUF is down more than 3.17%.
● The USD/RUB is down more than 1.90%.
● The JPY/CHF is down more than 1.05%.
Commodities
Gold:
YTD: +11.23%
Weekly: +0.86%
Brent:
YTD: +61.21%
Weekly: +1.56%
WTI:
YTD: +62.66%
Weekly: -5.34%
Copper:
YTD: +6.15%
Weekly: +5.07%
● London Gas Oil prices are down more than 16%.
● Orange Juice prices are down more than 10%.
● US Cocoa prices are up more than 5%.
● Oat prices are up more than 4.8%.
Indices
Dax40:
YTD: -1.41%
Weekly: +1.37%
S&P 500:
YTD: +2.37%
Weekly: +2.95%
NASDAQ:
YTD: +2.65%
Weekly: +5.19%
DOW JONES:
YTD: +0.98%
Weekly: +0.79%
FTSE 100:
YTD: +6.53%
Weekly: -0.13%
BOVESPA:
YTD: +22.15%
Weekly: +0.87%
● The Nasdaq Composite is up more than 6.40%.
● The KOSPI index is up more than 5.30%.
● The Japan225 index and the S&P 500 index are up more than 3.50%.
● The VIX index is down more than 15.55%.
Shares
Tops
● Oracle: +25.41%
● Intertek: +25.30%
● Albemarie: +22.18%
● Super Micro Computer: +21.42%
● Robinhood Markets: +21.32%
● Advanced Micro Devices: +19.42%
● Applovin: +18.25%
● Intel: +17.29%
● Strategy: +16.52%
● Tesla: +13.33%
● Broadcom: +13.11%
● Microsoft: +12.82%
● Doordash: +12.43%
● ENGIE Brasil Energia: +11.18%
Flops
● Akamai Technologies: -15.97%
● Imperial Brands: -11.34%
● Kering: -10.52%
● Insmed: -10.28%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 20 April
● 12:30 PM - Canadian - Inflation Rate YoY (March)
○ Previous: 1.8%
○ Forecast: 2.5%
● 11:50 PM - Japanese - Balance of Trade (March)
○ Previous: ¥57.3B
○ Forecast: ¥ 470B
Tuesday 21 April
● 06:00 AM - UK - Unemployment Rate (February)
○ Previous: 5.2%
○ Forecast: 5.3%
● 09:00 AM - German - ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)
○ Previous: -0.5
○ Forecast: -10
● 12:30 PM - American - Retail Sales MoM (March)
○ Previous: 0.6%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
Wednesday 22 April
● 06:00 AM - UK - Inflation Rate YoY (March)
○ Previous: 3%
○ Forecast: 3.4%
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 49.8
○ Forecast: 49
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 46.3
○ Forecast: 46
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 46.6
○ Forecast: 46.3
Thursday 23 April
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 50.1
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 53.4
○ Forecast: 52
● 12:30 AM - Japanese - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 53.0
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 48.8
○ Forecast: 48.2
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 50.0
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 07:15 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 48.8
○ Forecast: 48
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 52.2
○ Forecast: 52.5
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 51.9
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 50.9
○ Forecast: 50.5
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 50.7
○ Forecast: 50.2
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 51.6
○ Forecast: 52
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 50.2
○ Forecast: 49.7
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 51.0
○ Forecast: 51
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 50.5
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 50.3
○ Forecast: 51.6
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 50.3
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 52.3
○ Forecast: 52
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI Flash (April)
○ Previous: 49.8
○ Forecast: 49.6
● 11:30 PM - Japanese - Inflation Rate YoY (March)
○ Previous: 1.3%
○ Forecast: 1.5%
Friday 24 April
● 06:00 AM - UK - Retail Sales MoM (March)
○ Previous: -0.4%
○ Forecast: 0.2%
● 08:00 AM - German - Ifo Business Climate (April)
○ Previous: 86.4
○ Forecast: 85.5
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 20 April
● NVIDIA
● Lowe'S Cos
● Target
● TJX Companies
Tuesday 21 April
● UCB
● United Airlines
● 3M
● Halliburton
● GENERAL ELECTRIC
● UNITEDHEALTH
● Raytheon Technology
● Beiersdorf
Wednesday 22 April
● TESLA MOTORS
● BOEING
● AT&T
● IBM
● Philip Morris
Thursday 23 April
● Lockheed Martin
● Newmont Goldcorp
● American Airlines
● INTEL
● Union Pacific
● Sanofi
● STMicro
● SAP
● Nokia Corp
● AMERICAN EXPRESS
● Gilead Sciences
● Hasbro
● Dassault Systemes
● ORANGE
Friday 24 April
● ENI
● Nomura
● Western Union
● PROCTER & GAMBLE
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of April 17, 2026
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