Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Eurozone
● European Central Bank meeting accounts showed several policymakers were already open to raising rates at the April meeting.
● Markets now expect the ECB to lift its key interest rate to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting due to inflation and energy-price pressures.
● The ECB kept rates unchanged at 2% in April but maintained a hawkish tone amid rising geopolitical risks.
● ECB President Christine Lagarde warned central bank independence is increasingly under pressure from governments, rising debt levels, and fragile financial systems.
● The ECB warned investors may be underestimating the financial risks linked to the Middle East conflict and elevated sovereign debt levels.
● Officials said market reactions so far appear complacent, leaving eurozone assets vulnerable to abrupt repricing.
● Rising U.S. and Japanese bond yields, combined with hedge-fund positioning, could create additional pressure on European bond markets.
● Eurozone business and consumer confidence improved slightly in May, rising to 93.5 from 93.2 in April.
● Selling-price expectations eased across business sectors but remained above historical averages.
● The European Commission lowered its 2026 eurozone growth forecast to 0.9% while increasing its inflation projection to 3.0%.
France
● French consumer confidence dropped to 82 in May from 84 previously, marking the weakest reading since March 2023.
● Households became more pessimistic about their financial situation and major purchase plans.
● Rising energy prices and uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict continued to weigh on sentiment.
United States
● The U.S. housing market slowdown extended into a fourth consecutive year, forcing many real-estate professionals to leave the industry or seek additional income sources.
● Mortgage brokers, appraisers, photographers, and other housing-related industries also faced weaker activity.
● Home-price growth slowed further in March as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand.
● The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 0.7% year-over-year.
● Rising prices for lumber, copper, aluminum, fuel, and chemicals increased construction and renovation costs, worsening housing affordability pressures.
● Mortgage rates climbed to 6.51% amid a global bond-market selloff and persistent inflation concerns.
● The personal-consumption expenditures price index rose 0.4% in April, with annual inflation holding at 3.8%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
● New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces mounting pressure as inflation remains elevated while President Donald Trump continues to favor lower interest rates.
● Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned the U.S. economy risks moving into a stagflationary environment.
● Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said policymakers remain prepared to raise rates if inflation does not ease quickly enough.
● Cook noted inflation risks remain skewed to the upside despite expectations for a stable labor market.
● Manufacturing activity in the Richmond Fed region improved sharply in May, with the index rising to 13 from 3 previously.
● Businesses also reported easing price pressures and expected inflation moderation ahead.
● Consumer confidence weakened as inflation fears linked to the Middle East conflict intensified.
● The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 93.1 in May, while consumers’ assessment of business and labor-market conditions also deteriorated.
● The University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment fell to a record low as inflation expectations worsened.
● Initial jobless claims rose to 215,000 during the latest week, while continuing claims increased to 1.79 million.
● U.S. first-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 1.6% from 2.0%, mainly due to weaker consumer spending and lower inventory investment.
● Despite slower growth, after-tax corporate profits increased 3.3% quarter-over-quarter and 17% year-over-year.
China
● Chinese industrial firms posted a strong 24.7% increase in profits in April compared with a year earlier.
● Energy-related industries and technology manufacturing remained key growth drivers.
● Chemical-sector profits jumped 73.4%, while nonferrous metals profits surged 117.8% during the January-April period.
● Consumer-focused sectors continued to struggle due to weak domestic demand and slower economic activity.
Canada
● Canadian manufacturing shipments increased an estimated 4.6% in April, marking a third straight monthly gain.
● Petroleum and coal products led the increase as higher energy prices boosted revenues.
● The S&P Global manufacturing PMI improved to 53.3, signaling stronger industrial activity.
● Canadian banks strengthened their balance sheets and remain capable of lending even if geopolitical tensions escalate further.
● The Bank of Canada said households and businesses have remained relatively resilient despite earlier concerns over trade tensions and mortgage renewals.
● Officials nevertheless highlighted elevated risks tied to geopolitical instability and stretched valuations in equity and corporate-bond markets.
South Korea
● The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50% but signaled that future hikes remain possible.
● Policymakers raised their 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.6%.
● The central bank also lifted its inflation outlook, forecasting headline inflation at 2.7% and core inflation at 2.4% next year.
● Consumer inflation accelerated to 2.6% in April, the highest level in 21 months, largely due to rising oil prices.
Mexico
● The Bank of Mexico lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.6% after a weak first quarter.
● Officials cited uncertainty surrounding the USMCA review and geopolitical tensions as major downside risks.
● Mexico’s central bank cut its benchmark rate to 6.5% on May 7, effectively signaling the end of its easing cycle.
Australia
● Australia’s annual inflation rate slowed to 4.2% in April from 4.6% previously.
● The moderation was mainly linked to a temporary fuel tax cut that reduced transportation costs.
● Underlying inflation pressures remained elevated, with trimmed mean inflation rising to 3.4%.
● Markets increasingly see the risk of another Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase if price pressures persist.
New Zealand
● New Zealand’s central bank held its official cash rate at 2.25% for a third consecutive meeting.
● Policymakers remained divided, with three external members voting for a 25-basis-point increase.
● Officials preferred to evaluate the economic impact of the Middle East conflict before tightening further.
● First-quarter consumer inflation accelerated to 3.1%, remaining above the central bank’s target range.
Japan
● Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the current energy shock could significantly alter Japan’s inflation outlook.
● Ueda noted oil-price increases affect inflation through multiple channels, including wages, demand, currency moves, and expectations.
● The BOJ policy board remains concerned about rising crude prices, increasing speculation over a possible June interest-rate hike.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
EUR/USD:
● The ZAR/JPY is up more than 1.9%.
● The NZD/JPY, the NZD/CAD and the NZD/CHF are up more than 1.6%.
● The NZD/USD is up more than 1.5%.
● The JPY/NZD, the CAD/NZD, the GBP/UHF and the USD/UHF are down more than 1.5%.
Commodities
● Natural Gas prices are up more than 9%.
● US Cocoa prices are up more than 7%.
● US Soybeans prices are up more than 3.5%.
● WTI and Brent prices are down more than 8%.
● US Sugar prices are down more than 5%.
Indices
● The Japan 225 index is up more than 10%.
● The Kospi index is up more than 7%.
● The VIX index is down more than 10%.
● The Bist 100 index is down more than 2%.
Shares
Tops
● Dell Technologies: +30.49%
● First Solar: +27.90%
● Ford Motor: +26.42%
● ARM: +25.62%
● Micron Technology: +25.42%
● AppLovin: +24.98%
● Best Buy: +24.09%
● Dollar Tree: +21.08%
● Amphemol: +20.77%
● United Airlines: +20.57%
● QUALCOMM: +19.98%
● Sandisk: +19.18%
● Advanced Micro Devices: +17.22%
● Infineon Technologies: +16.88%
● International Business Machines: +13.60%
● Zalando: +12.82%
● JD Sports Fashion: +12.50%
Flops
● Zscaler: -24.07%
● PDD Holdings: -14.02%
● Boston Scientific: -12.35%
● AutoZone: -11.52%
● Autotrader: -10.89%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 01 June
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (May)
○ Previous: 52.2
○ Forecast: 51.9
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 51.2
● 07:30 AM - Swiss - procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (May)
○ Previous: 54.5
○ Forecast: 53.8
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 52.8
○ Forecast: 48.9
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 51.4
○ Forecast: 49.9
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 52.2
○ Forecast: 51.4
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 53.7
○ Forecast: 53.7
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)
○ Previous: 53.3
○ Forecast: 52
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 54.5
○ Forecast: 55.3
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)
○ Previous: 52.7
○ Forecast: 52.6
Tuesday 02 June
● 09:00 AM - European - Inflation Rate YoY Flash (May)
○ Previous: 3%
○ Forecast: 3.4%
● 02:00 PM - American - JOLTs Job Openings (April)
○ Previous: 6.866M
○ Forecast: 6.8M
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 50.4
○ Forecast: 47.8
● 11:00 PM - Australian - S&P Global Services PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 50.7
○ Forecast: 47.7
Wednesday 03 June
● 01:30 AM - Australian - GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1)
○ Previous: 0.8%
○ Forecast: 0.5%
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Services PMI (May)
○ Previous: 52.6
○ Forecast: 52.5
● 01:45 AM - Chinese - RatingDog Composite PMI (May)
○ Previous: 53.1
○ Forecast: 52.8
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Services PMI (May)
○ Previous: 47.9
○ Forecast: 55.8
● 07:15 AM - Spanish - S&P Global Composite PMI (May)
○ Previous: 48.7
○ Forecast: 54.6
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 47.6
○ Forecast: 43.5
● 07:50 AM - French - S&P Global Services PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 46.5
○ Forecast: 42.9
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 48.4
○ Forecast: 48.6
● 07:55 AM - German - S&P Global Services PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 46.9
○ Forecast: 47.8
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 48.8
○ Forecast: 47.5
● 08:00 AM - European - S&P Global Services PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 47.6
○ Forecast: 46.4
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Composite PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 52.6
○ Forecast: 48.5
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Services PMI Final (May)
○ Previous: 52.7
○ Forecast: 47.9
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Composite PMI (May)
○ Previous: 49.9
○ Forecast: 49.8
● 01:30 PM - Canadian - S&P Global Services PMI (May)
○ Previous: 49.2
○ Forecast: 49.6
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Composite PMI (May)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 51.7
● 01:45 PM - American - S&P Global Services PMI (May)
○ Previous: 51.0
○ Forecast: 50.9
● 02:00 PM - American - ISM Services PMI (May)
○ Previous: 53.6
○ Forecast: 53.6
Thursday 04 June
● 01:30 AM - Australian - Balance of Trade (April)
○ Previous: A$-1.841B
○ Forecast: A$-3.0B
● 07:30 AM - European - S&P Global Construction PMI (May)
○ Previous: 41.7
○ Forecast: 41.5
● 07:30 AM - French - S&P Global Construction PMI (May)
○ Previous: 38.1
○ Forecast: 38
● 07:30 AM - German - S&P Global Construction PMI (May)
○ Previous: 42.1
○ Forecast: 42
● 08:30 AM - UK - S&P Global Construction PMI (May)
○ Previous: 39.7
○ Forecast: 40.3
Friday 05 June
● 12:30 PM - Canadian - Unemployment Rate (May)
○ Previous: 6.9%
○ Forecast: 6.9%
● 12:30 PM - American - Non Farm Payrolls (May)
○ Previous: 115K
○ Forecast: 96K
● 12:30 PM - American - Unemployment Rate (May)
○ Previous: 4.3%
○ Forecast: 4.3%
● 02:00 PM - Canadian - Ivey PMI s.a (May)
○ Previous: 57.7
○ Forecast: 51
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Monday 01 June
● Hewlett Packard
Tuesday 02 June
● Dollar General
Wednesday 03 June
● Medtronic
● Broadcom
● Industria de Diseno Textil
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of May 29, 2026
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