Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
● The OECD upgraded its U.S. GDP outlook to 2% for this year and 1.7% for next year.
● U.S. services activity improved in November, with stronger business activity and new orders, although employment contracted for a sixth straight month and price pressures eased to the lowest since April.
● U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in September, partially reversing August’s 0.3% decline.
● New unemployment claims in the U.S. fell to 191,000, the lowest in three years, though the November jobs report is delayed to December 16 due to the shutdown.
● Private hiring in the U.S. weakened sharply in November, with ADP reporting 32,000 jobs lost, compared with 47,000 added in October. This year’s average monthly job creation through September fell to 62,000, down from 186,000 in 2024.
● U.S. import prices were unchanged in September, as fuel import prices dropped 1.5%.
● U.S. manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month, with firms citing higher costs and uncertainty linked to tariffs.
● Eurozone retail sales were flat in October, with declines in Germany and France and stable levels in Spain.
● Consumer confidence in the Eurozone held steady at its highest point since February, although households continue to prioritize saving over spending.
● Eurozone inflation edged up to 2.2% year-over-year, up from 2.1% in October, mainly due to faster service-sector price growth.
● The OECD expects eurozone inflation to average 1.9% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, with rates likely held at 2%.
● The EU launched a $3.5 billion plan to secure critical minerals as tensions with China grow, including supply-monitoring mechanisms, joint investments, and increased recycling.
● Swiss inflation slowed again, with food and non-durables falling, while services, housing, and energy costs continued to rise.
● A private gauge showed China’s services sector expanding at its slowest pace in five months, signaling softer momentum.
● The OECD expects global growth to slow to 2.9% next year from 3.2% this year, with trade tensions and higher tariffs weighing heavily, especially on China-linked supply chains.
● India’s central bank cut its policy rate to 5.25% from 5.50% as inflation cooled.
● The RBI raised its GDP growth forecast to 7.3% (from 6.8%) and lowered its inflation forecast to 2.0% (from 2.6%).
● The central bank will buy bonds worth 1 trillion rupees and run a $5 billion buy-sell swap to boost liquidity.
● BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said officials are working to determine Japan’s neutral interest rate, seen by markets as potentially around 1.5%.
● The BOJ continues to signal caution as it prepares for long-term policy normalization.
This Week’s Market Movers
Forex
● The AUD/USD is up more than 1.44%.
● The AUD/CHF is up more than 1.25%.
● The USD/JPY is down more than 1.05%.
● The USD/RUB is down more than 3.15%.
● The TRY/JPY is down more than 1.25%.
Commodities
● Copper prices reached a new all time high in London at more than $11,400 per tonne.
● Silver prices are up more than 3.40%.
Indices
● The VIX index is down more than 7.30%.
● The BRA50 index is up more than 3.70%
● The Nasdaq and the Dow Jones indices are up more than 1.30%.
Shares
Tops
● Microship Technology: +24.77%
● Applovin: +20.86%
● Dollar General: +19.63%
● NXP Semiconductors: +17.92%
● Teradyne: +17.10%
● CVC Brasil Operadora: +16.09%
● Marvell Technology: +16.08%
● Synopsys: +15.04%
● Old Dominion Freight Line: +15.03%
● Magazine Luiza: +14.55%
● Stellantis: +14.40%
● ON Semiconductor: +13.44%
● Deckers Outdoor: +13.20%
● STMicroelectronics: +12.69%
Flops
● C&A Modas: - 15.87%
● Whitbread: -15.41%
● Alexandria Real Estate Equities: - 10.90%
● Zscaler: - 10.46%
Important Events to Follow
Monday 08 December
● 03:00 AM - Chinese Balance of Trade (November)
○ Previous: $90.07B
○ Forecast: $92.0B
● 03:00 AM - Chinese Exports YoY (November)
○ Previous: -1.1%
○ Forecast: 3.2%
● 03:00 AM - Chinese Imports YoY (November)
○ Previous: 1%
○ Forecast: 2.5%
Tuesday 09 December
● 12:30 AM - Australian NAB Business Confidence (November)
○ Previous: 6
● 03:30 AM - Australian RBA Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 3.6%
○ Forecast: 3.6%
● 07:00 AM - German Balance of Trade (October)
○ Previous: €15.3B
○ Forecast: €15.9B
● 03:00 PM - American JOLTs Job Openings (September)
○ Previous: 7.227M
○ Forecast: 7.2M
● 03:00 PM - American JOLTs Job Openings (October)
○ Forecast: 7.0M
Wednesday 10 December
● 01:30 AM - Chinese Inflation Rate YoY (November)
○ Previous: 0.2%
○ Forecast: 0.5%
● 02:45 PM - Canadian BoC Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 2.25%
○ Forecast: 2.25%
● 07:00 PM - American Fed Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 4.0%
○ Forecast: 3.75%
● 07:00 PM - American FOMC Economic Projections
● 07:30 PM - American Fed Press Conference
Thursday 11 December
● 08:30 AM - Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 0
○ Forecast: 0
● 09:30 PM - New Zealander Business NZ PMI (November)
○ Previous: 51.4
○ Forecast: 50.0
● 09:30 PM - American PPI MoM (October)
○ Previous: 0.3%
○ Forecast: 0.4%
● 09:30 PM - American PPI MoM (November)
○ Forecast: 0.3%
Friday 12 December
● 07:00 AM - UK GDP MoM (October)
○ Previous: -0.1%
○ Forecast: 0.0%
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Tuesday 09 December
● ThyssenKrupp
Wednesday 10 December
● Photronics
● ADOBE
● Oracle
Thursday 11 December
● Costco
● Broadcom
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Trading Economics, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of 28 November 2025
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