Weekly Outlook
What Happened This Week?
Europe
● Eurozone: Inflation accelerated sharply to 3.3% in August, up from 2.9% in July and the highest level since September 2023, as renewed Middle East tensions pushed energy prices higher.
● The latest inflation jump strengthened expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates next week to contain renewed price pressures.
● Germany: Inflation rose to 2.9% in August from 2.8% in July, although the figure came in below the 3.2% expected by economists. Energy costs and geopolitical tensions remain key drivers.
● The Ifo Institute upgraded its German growth forecast to 1.4% for 2026, from 0.8% previously, supported by stronger exports and higher public spending on infrastructure, climate projects and defence.
● Ifo expects German GDP growth of 1.2% in 2027 and 0.8% in 2028.
● Switzerland: Inflation rebounded to 0.8% in August from 0.4% in July, with higher petrol, diesel, heating-oil and rental costs driving the acceleration.
● Renewed geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices are putting upward pressure on inflation across Europe, increasing uncertainty over the path of monetary policy.
U.K.
● Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill argued that interest rates may need to rise to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.
● Pill joined two other MPC members in voting for a rate hike in July, while six policymakers preferred to keep rates unchanged.
● The debate highlights the BoE’s dilemma: energy prices remain highly uncertain, while geopolitical tensions could keep inflation elevated for longer.
● U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham pledged to reduce government debt and stick to fiscal rules ahead of the October budget.
● Investors remain concerned that the government could announce higher spending without equivalent tax increases, adding to fiscal pressure.
● Government debt is already close to 94% of GDP, limiting room for additional fiscal stimulus.
U.S.
● Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping interest rates unchanged if upcoming August inflation data confirms that price pressures are easing.
● Fed Governor Michael Barr, however, said rates should be raised this month if incoming data fail to show sufficient progress on inflation, highlighting divisions within the Fed.
● Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued against raising rates in response to a supply shock, pointing to restrained core inflation.
● U.S. services activity remained solid, with the ISM services PMI rising to 55.4 in August from 54.1, while new orders jumped to 60.9.
● Employment remained in contraction for a second consecutive month, however, while companies continued to cite tariffs and Middle East tensions as major supply-chain risks.
● Manufacturing activity eased, with the ISM manufacturing PMI falling to 54.6 from 55.6, below the 55.3 expected.
● U.S. jobless claims increased slightly to 206,000, while continuing claims also edged higher, pointing to a broadly stable labour market.
● Job openings rose to 7.3 million in July from 7.2 million, but the hiring rate fell to 3.2% from 3.4%, suggesting companies remain cautious about expanding payrolls.
● The number of layoffs remained broadly stable at around 1.7 million, while voluntary quits held at 3.1 million.
Canada
● The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% for a seventh consecutive meeting, as policymakers balance weak growth against renewed inflation risks.
● Governor Tiff Macklem warned that escalating trade tensions with the U.S. could slow the economic recovery while simultaneously pushing inflation higher.
● The disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has also increased upside risks to the inflation outlook.
Norway
● Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, in line with expectations.
● Governor Ida Wolden Bache warned that another rate increase could still be necessary because inflation remains too high.
● The central bank is closely monitoring the impact of Middle East tensions and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz on energy prices.
New Zealand
● The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%.
● The RBNZ highlighted persistent inflation risks despite an uneven economic recovery and unemployment remaining at elevated levels.
● The move signals that policymakers are willing to tolerate tighter financial conditions to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched.
Malaysia
● Bank Negara Malaysia held its policy rate at 2.75%, supported by strong growth and relatively contained inflation.
● Malaysia’s economy expanded 6.0% year-on-year in Q2, accelerating from 5.4% in Q1.
● Strong domestic activity gives the central bank room to remain on hold despite external geopolitical and energy risks.
India
● India’s economy expanded 7.8% year-on-year in Q2, beating the 7.5% consensus forecast.
● Growth was broad-based, with manufacturing output up 9.2%, while construction and private consumption also strengthened.
● However, India’s energy bill is rising rapidly: crude-oil imports jumped 56% to $63.4 billion between April and July compared with a year earlier.
Global Markets / Commodities
● Global bond yields surged, with the selloff spreading across major developed markets as higher oil prices revived inflation concerns.
● The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.798%, its highest level since January 2025.
● Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996, highlighting the scale of the global bond-market pressure.
● Rising yields reflect growing expectations that major central banks may need to tighten policy again as energy prices remain elevated.
● Gold is also becoming a focus of geopolitical risk management: the Netherlands is moving part of its gold reserves from New York to London, citing heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
● The potential for a prolonged El Niño is adding another layer of risk to agricultural markets, with disruptions to crops in South America and Asia potentially supporting prices for commodities such as corn and sugar.
● The World Meteorological Organization estimates the probability of El Niño continuing through February 2027 is close to 100%.
This Week’s Market Movers
● Driven by FX market intervention speculation and growing expectations that the Bank of Japan could deliver a larger-than-expected interest rate hike this month, the Japanese yen strengthened to a one-month high against the US dollar.
● The JPY/NZD, the JPY/CHF, the JPY/GBP and the JPY/EUR are up more than 2.1%.
● The NOK/SEK is up more than 0.8%.
● The USD/CHF is up more than 0.5%.
● The AUD/JPY and the CAD/JPY are down more than 1.4%.
● The TRY/JPY is down more than 2.4%.
● WTI prices are up more than 9.60%.
● Brent and London Gas Oil prices are up more than 8.30%.
● Orange juice prices are up more than 7%.
● Cocoa prices are down more than 7.60%.
● Coffee prices are down more than 5.70%.
● Cotton and Wheat prices are down more than 4.30%.
● The Bovespa index is up more than 6%.
● The Bist100 and the Vix indices are down more than 4%.
● The CAC40 index is down more than 2%.
Shares
Tops
● Robinhood Markets: +13.63%
● Trade Desk: +12.44%
● Alnylam Pharmaceutical: +11.81%
● Deere& Co: +11.52%
Flops
● Edison International: -23.59%
● PG&E: -22.23%
● Ciena: -20.61%
● Marvell Technology: -13.51%
● Palo Alto Networks: -13.30%
● Cadence Design Systems: -12.28%
● Autodesk: -12.22%
Important Events to Follow
Tuesday 08 September
● 12:30 AM - Australian - Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (September)
○ Previous: 6%
○ Forecast: -3.6%
● 01:30 AM - Australian - NAB Business Confidence (August)
○ Previous: -6
○ Forecast: -8
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Balance of Trade (August)
○ Previous: $112.5B
○ Forecast: $120.0B
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Exports YoY (August)
○ Previous: 23.9%
● 03:00 AM - Chinese - Imports YoY (August)
○ Previous: 27.5%
● 06:00 AM - German - Balance of Trade (July)
○ Previous: €15.4B
○ Forecast: €17.5B
Wednesday 09 September
● 01:30 AM - Chinese - Inflation Rate YoY (August)
○ Previous: 0.5%
○ Forecast: 0.5%
Thursday 10 September
● 12:15 PM - European - Deposit Facility Rate
○ Previous: 2.25%
○ Forecast: 2.5%
● 12:15 PM - European - ECB Interest Rate Decision
○ Previous: 2.4%
○ Forecast: 2.65%
● 12:30 PM - American - PPI MoM (August)
○ Previous: 0%
○ Forecast: 0.3%
● 12:45 PM - European - ECB Press Conference
● 02:00 PM - American - Existing Home Sales (August)
○ Previous: 4.06M
○ Forecast: 4.03M
Friday 11 September
● 06:00 AM - UK - GDP MoM (July)
○ Previous: 0.3%
○ Forecast: 0.1%
● 12:30 PM - American - Core Inflation Rate YoY (August)
○ Previous: 2.5%
○ Forecast: 2.4%
● 12:30 PM - American - Inflation Rate YoY (August)
○ Previous: 3.4%
○ Forecast: 3.4%
● 02:00 PM - American - Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (September)
○ Previous: 51.7
○ Forecast: 51.5
Major Earnings Reports to Watch
Wednesday 09 September
● Industria de Diseno Textil
Thursday 10 September
● Oracle
● ADOBE
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Investing, Trading Economics Calendar GMT, Reuters, TradingView and ActivTrades’ Data as of September 04, 2026
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